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July 18, 2006

The Wizard of Odds

Just before the US Open last month, Gelf noticed that SI.com's Gary Van Sickle had written himself into a corner from which he lacked the math skills to escape. In his quest to liven up his preview column for a golf major, Van Sickle had given odds of victory for each player, but hadn't bothered to see to it that the odds, taken together, made any sense. Now that the British Open is upon us, Van Sickle is back to his old ways of—if Gelf may borrow a lame golf metaphor—hacking his way through the course.

Last time around, Van Sickle gave such inflated odds for each golfer that he was about three times more optimistic than he should have been: Add up the percentage chance of each golfer winning, and you'd find three tournaments would be won all at once. This time, the sum of Van Sickle's percentages equals 425%, meaning that he's even more optimistic than before. (For example, Van Sickle gives David Howell a 14.3% chance of winning, while a real oddsmaker puts Howell's chances at 2.8%.)

Of course, it's possible that Van Sickle realizes that this whole enterprise is corrupt. He clearly doesn't know anything about some of these guys he's giving odds for, or else he has gotten so tired writing the blurbs that he has started making fun of the form.

Here are some examples:

Marius Thorp 125:1 Anagram fans may recognize this amateur as Trump Is Hoar.
Shiv Kapur 87:1 There's an old saying in golf—beware the golfer whose anagram is Ravish Kup.
Thaworn Wiratchant 64:1 Here's a name just begging to be a puzzle on "Wheel of Fortune."
David Smail 70:1 Doesn't play as slowly as you might think.
Stephen Dodd 48:1 Can he bring his own brand of Doddball to Hoylake?
Bradley Dredge 62:1 Only player in the field whose name rhymes with wedge.







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Comments

- Media
- posted on Jul 20, 06
E

Van Sickle had also given odds on each nation's chance to win the tourney, and those made even less sense. I think the USA was a longer shot than Tiger Woods. Someone noticed, because those have been eliminated.

- Media
- posted on Jul 20, 06
bobh

Geez, get a life, huh? He's trying (OK, and failing) to add some humor, liven it up. What are you, some probability geek?

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