Last year, after the first round of the NCAA tournament, Gelf noted that so many of the highest seeds had close calls. But in the 2006 tournament, the differences between the sport's elite and the low men on the bracket pole have seemingly been all but erased—until the very end of games.

Gelf looked at the 16 first-round games between seeds 1-4 and seeds 13-16. Last year, the average victory margin was 10.75. This year, it was 11. But more than a third of that margin came from just two blowouts: Florida's and UCLA's. Last year, 12 of the games were decided by 13 points or fewer. This year, five were decided by four points or fewer. And none of the No. 1 seeds notched blowouts. UConn was down 12 late in the second half. And the difference was qualitative as well as quantitative: The overachieving underdogs weren't scrappy nor lucky; they looked every bit as athletic, fast, and skilled as the favorites.

Yet the top seeds again went 14-2 in the first round by excelling in the games' final moments. Perhaps the players' greater experience playing before TV cameras and packed houses played a role; or maybe it was all the money those schools spend on expensive coaches.

Meanwhile, those big-conference bubble teams have maintained their reputation for irrelevance. Four of the five—Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, and Alabama—were mere tournament memories after three days. N.C. State will have to beat Texas to avoid their fate.