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November 6, 2006

Be Conservative or Be Ridiculed

When Bill Parcells opted to go for a two-point conversion early in the second quarter of the Cowboys-Redskins game on Sunday, it marked the first time this year that a team has gone for two—instead of settling for a near-automatic, one-point kick— in the first half. And because the game—which the Cowboys lost—was tied until the final seconds, Parcells has been mocked mercilessly in the press for his decision that ended up costing his team a precious point. Yes, the choice was unusual. But was it wrong?

In the postgame press conference, Parcells unequivocally stated, "I go by the chart." The "chart," which according to NFL.com was first developed by Dick Vermeil at UCLA more than 30 years ago, directs its users to go for two if a touchdown leaves them ahead by one point. At that point in the game, the Cowboys were ahead by the strange score of 6-5.

What the chart does not take into account, though, is at what point in the game the decision takes place. Using historical probabilities to make projections, the smart guys over at footballcommentary.com found that Parcells' decision was neither brilliant nor stupid. Instead, they found, it barely changed the Cowboys chances of winning at all.

What the radical notion did do, though, is allow conservative sportswriters from around the country to mock the Tuna. Here are some examples:

Randy Galloway, Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Why, with the Cowboys grabbing a 6-5 lead early in the second quarter, did Parcells go, unsuccessfully, for two? Why give up a point that early? "Our charts said to do what we did," he answered. Well, burn the charts. That one point hung over the Cowboys the rest of the way.

Thomas Boswell, Washington Post
One delicious element in this game was savored in the Redskins' locker room. A dubious strategic decision by Parcells cost the Cowboys this game—On the flight back to Dallas, perhaps Owens and Parcells can sit side by side. Owens can rationalize how he dropped that certain touchdown bomb and another open pass. Parcells can explain why he tells players not to stir up opponents by popping off, then does it himself and compounds his sins by giving away a crucial point.

Ira Miller, San Jose Mercury News
Bill Parcells is one of the great coaches in NFL history and he probably will be in the Hall of Fame someday, but he suffers from the same flaw many other coaches sometimes do. It's called "chasing points," going for a two-point conversion when prudence would call for kicking the extra point.
For that supposed sin, Parcells won Miller's Biggest Bonehead of the Week Award.

Buck Harvey, San Antonio Express-News
Bill Parcells dropped one, too, when he went for two early. He abided by his "chart," costing the Cowboys a point in a game that would eventually be tied with no time on the clock.

Paul Needell, Newark Star-Ledger
It just goes to show there are no so-called "geniuses" in this business.
The "business" Needell refers to is coaching, not journalism.







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