Sporstwriters' forecasts are just for fun. And as NFL.com Gregg Easterbrook has shown, they're often not worth much more than fun. So just for fun, Gelf collected predictions from an assortment of sportswriters before the NCAA tournament began. It ended with the top two teams playing each other for the championship—really not that hard an outcome to forecast. (A national bracket compiled of all of the people who competed in the ESPN Tournament Challenge came up with the correct finals pairing.) Here's a roundup of the picks, ranked roughly in order of worst to best. Correct picks are bolded; Gelf's comments are in italics. You can play along with this ESPN.com bracket:
Champion: Wake Forest
Jim Moore, Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Final Four: Arizona, Washington, Duke [didn't name a fourth]
Championship: Duke over Washington
Duke and Washington exited in the Sweet Sixteen, while Arizona made it as far as the Elite Eight.
Final Four: Syracuse, UConn, Arizona, Illinois
This boneheaded set of picks, by me, included two teams from the Chicago regional: Arizona and Illinois. At least one of them did make it through.
Tim Kawakami, San Jose Mercury News
Final Four: Louisville, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Syracuse
Champion: Louisville
Mike Strange, Knoxville News Sentinel
Champion: North Carolina
Andy Katz
First-round upsets: Ohio over Florida, UTEP over Utah
Final Four: Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Syracuse
Champion: Wake Forest
Katz picked Stanford last year, and the Cardinal lost in the second round. He wrote this year, "Now just don't lose in the second round like Stanford!" Wake lost in the second round to West Virginia.
Andy Glockner
First-round upsets: Ohio over Florida, Utah State over Arizona
Final Four: Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Syracuse
Champion: Wake Forest
Jay Bilas
Final Four: Illinois, Washington, Syracuse, North Carolina
Championship: Illinois over North Carolina
This forecast—which had the teams in the title game right but reversed the result—was made on air.
Pat Forde
First-round upsets: Old Dominion over Michigan State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Alabama
Final Four: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Syracuse
Champion: North Carolina
Doug Gottlieb
First-round upsets: Old Dominion over Michigan State, Utah State over Utah
Utah State played—and lost to—Arizona in the first round.
Final Four: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke
Champion: North Carolina
Joe Lunardi
First-round upsets: N.C. State over Charlotte, Utah State over Arizona
Final Four: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Louisville, Duke
Champion: North Carolina
Fran Fraschilla
First-round upsets: Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Alabama, UTEP over Utah
Final Four: Illinois, North Carolina, Washington, Michigan State
Champion: North Carolina
Sleepers: Villanova, Alabama, Michigan State, Pittsburgh
Elite Eight: Illinois, Arizona, Louisville, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Connecticut, Duke, Kentucky
Final Four: Illinois, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke
Championship: North Carolina over Illinois
Scorecard: 2 of 4 sleepers out in first round, 1 in Sweet Sixteen and 1 in Elite Eight; 5 of Elite Eight; 2 of Final Four; championship exactly right. Dukie Vitale belied his rep by picking against Duke. The pick of Illinois to reach the title game wasn't in Vitale's online column, but he made it on air.
Jenni Carlson
First-round upsets: Nevada over Texas; Saint Mary's over Southern Illinois; Iowa State over Minnesota; NC State over Charlotte; Mississippi State over Stanford.
Sweet 16: Illinois, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Washington, Louisville, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Florida, Connecticut, Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, Oklahoma.
Elite Eight: Illinois, OSU, Louisville, Wake Forest, North Carolina, UConn, Duke, Kentucky.
Final Four: OSU, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Duke.
Championship: North Carolina over Wake Forest.
Scorecard: 3 of 5 first-round upsets; 8 of Sweet 16; 4 of Elite Eight; 1 of Final Four; and champion right.
Carter Strickland
First-round upset: St. Mary's over Southern Ill.; Pittsburgh over Pacific; Creighton over West Virginia; Vermont over Syracuse; Mississippi State over Stanford; New Mexico over Villanova.
Sweet 16: North Carolina, New Mexico, Kansas, N.C. State, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Washington, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Alabama, Illinois.
Elite Eight: North Carolina, Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Washington, Arizona, Illinois.
Final Four: North Carolina, Duke, Washington, Arizona.
Championship: North Carolina over Arizona.
Scorecard: 2 of 6 first-round upsets; 9 of Sweet 16; 4 of Elite Eight; one of Final Four; and champion right.
Berry Tramel
First-round upsets: Nevada over Texas; Wis-Milwaukee over Alabama; Creighton over West Virginia; Iowa State over Minnesota; New Mexico over Villanova.
Sweet 16: Illinois, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, OSU, Arizona, Pacific, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Florida, UConn, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma.
Elite Eight: Illinois, OSU, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma.
Final Four: Illinois, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Michigan State.
Championship: North Carolina over Georgia Tech.
Scorecard: 3 of 5 first-round upsets; 8 of Sweet 16; 3 of Elite Eight; 3 of Final Four; and champion right.
Mike Baldwin
First-round upsets: Nevada over Texas; New Mexico over Villanova; Northern Iowa over Wisconsin; Mississippi State over Stanford; Vermont over Syracuse.
Sweet 16: Illinois, Alabama, Oklahoma State, LSU, Washington, Louisville, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Florida, Charlotte, Kansas, Duke, Michigan State, Kentucky, Oklahoma.
Elite Eight: Illinois, OSU, Louisville, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan State, Kentucky.
Final Four: Illinois, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Michigan State.
Championship: North Carolina over Illinois.
Scorecard: 3 of 5 first-round upsets; 8 of Sweet 16; 5 of Elite Eight; 3 of Final Four; and championship exactly right.
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